England advances to semi-final
England secured their place in the World Cup semi-finals after a 2-1 extra-time victory over Norway in Miami. The match saw Thomas Tuchel‘s side come from behind, with Andreas Schjelderup scoring the opener for Norway. Jude Bellingham then netted a controversial equaliser before half-time, bringing the score to 1-1 at the end of 90 minutes. Bellingham again proved decisive, scoring early in extra-time to give the Three Lions the lead, which they maintained until the final whistle.
This hard-fought win sets up a clash with Argentina in the semi-finals. Argentina also progressed after a dramatic extra-time victory against Switzerland in their quarter-final match. The upcoming semi-final fixture is scheduled for Wednesday, 15 July, with kick-off at 8pm BST (3pm ET) in Atlanta.
Path to the semi-final
England‘s journey through the World Cup has seen them navigate several challenging encounters. Their group stage began on 17 June with a 4-2 win against Croatia at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. This was followed by a goalless draw against Ghana on 23 June at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, and a 2-0 victory over Panama on 27 June at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
In the Round of 32, England defeated DR Congo 2-1 on 1 July at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. They then faced Mexico in the Round of 16, securing a 3-2 win on 5 July at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. The quarter-final match against Norway on 11 July, which ended 2-1 after extra-time at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, solidified their spot in the semi-finals.
The semi-final against Argentina will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Should England advance, the final is scheduled for 19 July at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, where they would face either France or Spain.
Simulation predicts increased chances
A simulation conducted by the University of Reading suggests that England‘s chances of winning the World Cup have increased. Initially, the team was given a 9% chance of success at the start of the tournament, a figure that has now risen to 15%. According to Professor James Reade, a sports economist who developed the prediction model, England‘s strong performance and the elimination of other strong contenders have contributed to this improved outlook.
Despite their rising chances, England is currently ranked fourth to lift the trophy on Sunday, 19 July. Argentina leads the predictions with a 36% chance, followed by Spain at 18% and France at 17%. Professor Reade noted that if England progresses past Norway, they would face an Argentina side considered overwhelming favourites to win the tournament. This scenario would most likely lead to a final against either Spain or France.
The simulation model estimates each nation’s attacking and defensive strength using data from international matches played since January 2023. For every simulated match, the model generates expected goals for both teams and uses statistical distributions to determine the outcome, including extra time and penalties. This process is repeated 10,000 times to produce the final probability estimates.
The model also indicated that the chance of all four teams—France, Argentina, England, and Spain—reaching the semi-finals is 28%. Conversely, the likelihood of none of the top four seeded teams making it to the semi-finals is just 0.5%. The most likely final outcomes are a Spain vs Argentina match at 23%, followed by France vs Argentina at 21%. The least likely final scenario is between Norway and Morocco, with a 0.5% chance.
Professor Reade also conducted an award-winning study in 2025 on penalty kicks, suggesting that penalty takers should aim high and wide for the best chance of success from 12 yards. The semi-final match between England and Argentina is set for 15 July.
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Source: independent.co.uk
Freya Donnelly is the Sports Reporter at News-UK, covering tennis, cricket and athletics with seven years of reporting experience. She reported on Team GB through an Olympic cycle. She holds a degree in Sport and Media from the University of Brighton and completed an NCTJ diploma. Based in Brighton, she plays club cricket in the summer. “Listening is the most underrated skill in sports reporting.”
