Air France-KLM has significantly adjusted its capacity growth forecast for 2026, now predicting an increase of only 2% to 4%, down from the previous estimate of 3% to 5%. This change comes as the airline anticipates a staggering $2.4 billion rise in fuel costs, primarily influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The airline’s total fuel bill for 2026 is expected to reach $9.3 billion, marking a $2.4 billion increase compared to 2025. Concerns surrounding the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude prices to a four-year high of $126 per barrel, adding further strain on operating costs.
In its first-quarter report, Air France-KLM posted an operating loss of €27 million, which is notably better than the €389 million loss analysts had projected. KLM’s Back on Track improvement program contributed €159 million in savings during this period, highlighting efforts to control costs amid rising expenses.
KLM CEO Marjan Rintel expressed that ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and sharply increased fuel prices will pressure results starting in the second quarter. She noted that the airline cannot fully pass on these high fuel prices to customers, which complicates profitability further.
Ben Smith, CEO of Air France-KLM, described the operating environment as remaining ‘uncertain’. He emphasized the need for continued vigilance and adaptation in response to fluctuating market conditions.
As KLM navigates these challenges, observers expect that the airline will need to implement more stringent cost control measures to mitigate losses and sustain operations effectively.
